The Indian Super League (ISL) season is in a pivotal moment as the four semi-finalists prepare for the decisive second legs of the semi-final.

Bengaluru FC head to Goa with a solid 2-0 lead while Jamshedpur FC travel to Kolkata with a 2-1 advantage from the first leg as they look to knock out the League Shield winners Mohun Bagan Super Giant.

With the semi-final ties just at the half-way mark, all possibilities are still very much open. However, we take a peep into history to gauge where the destiny of these semi-final ties could be possibly headed.

The ISL has always had a two-legged system in the semi-finals which has created intense drama over the years. Starting from the dramatic semi-final tie between Kerala Blasters FC and Chennaiyin FC in 2014 that needed extra-time to decide the winner to the thrilling comeback by Mumbai City FC in 2023-24, ISL semi-finals have never failed to entertain.

With both the home teams winning the first legs, here’s what history has to say about teams that manage to head into enemy territory with their noses in front.

Out of the 16 home-away semi-finals in the ISL (excluding the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons which were played inside a bio bubble), six ties have been won by teams playing the first legs at home while the other ten have been won by teams playing away from home in the first legs.

So, playing the second leg at home has proved to be an advantage in the ISL which is passed onto the teams with a higher rank in the league stage as the playoff brackets are designed in such a way.

However, there is nothing more advantageous than having a lead and that has proved to be true in the case of ISL too. Ten out of the 20 total semi-finals in the ISL have been won by teams that have emerged victorious in the first legs.

Only four times in 20 semi-finals ties in ISL history have teams that have lost the first leg managed to overturn the deficit and reach the final.

This makes great reading for Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC who, going by the above metric, have a 71% chance of winning the semi-final tie.

However, the numbers change slightly when you add the home advantage factor to this equation. Home teams have won the first legs on nine occasions in the ISL so far and five out of those teams have gone onto win the semi-final tie.

With home advantage for the away team of the first leg, the chances of teams that win the first leg at home going onto win the tie reduce, although are still substantial.

Going by the above metric, Bengaluru FC and Jamshedpur FC have 56% chance of qualifying for the final.

In the last two seasons though, all four semi-final ties have been won by the team that has played the second leg at home, however, of those four semi-final ties, only one tie saw a home win in the first leg.

Mohun Bagan Super Giant lost to Odisha FC in the first leg of the semi-final last season but managed to overturn the deficit in the second leg in Kolkata. They will be hoping for a similar outcome when they host Jamshedpur FC in Kolkata on Monday.

Things are a bit bleaker for FC Goa who trail their opponents by two goals. Never in the history of the ISL semi-finals has a deficit of more than one goal been overturned. On the five occasions a team has won the first leg by more than one goal, that team has managed to qualify for the final on every single occasion.

But history is an indicator of what the future holds and football has shown over the years that history can be rewritten. The past is weighing slightly against the two teams that have a deficit to overcome in the two semi-final ties, but football as they say is won on the field and not on paper. Bring on the second legs!

Related tags:

Mohun Bagan Super GiantJamshedpur FCBengaluru FCFC Goa2024-2025