Expected vs Real: A look at xG and xGA metrics of all ISL teams this season
The ISL 2023-24 season is up and running, but which teams have made the most of the opportunities presented to them?
The Indian Super League (ISL) 2023-24 is up and running, and following the conclusion of Matchweek 3, Mohun Bagan Super Giant stand firmly atop the table with a perfect winning record. They are followed by Mumbai City FC, who have amassed seven points.
FC Goa, having played one game less, currently occupy the third position with six points, while Kerala Blasters FC are positioned fourth in the table, also with six points.
.@mohunbagansg are on 🔝 of the proceedings as we head into the international break! 📈 #ISL10 #LetsFootball #ISLonJioCinema #ISLonSports18 | @JioCinema @Sports18 pic.twitter.com/OTkjzqzY2x
— Indian Super League (@IndSuperLeague) October 9, 2023
Meanwhile, teams such as Hyderabad FC and Chennaiyin FC are situated in the 11th and 12th positions, respectively, in the points table, with both yet to secure a point in the league.
But what about the underlying performance of these teams? We provide key statistics to illustrate how ISL teams have fared within both penalty boxes over the past three matchweeks.
Expected Goals (xG)
The Expected Goals (xG) metric evaluates every goal-scoring chance created and the likelihood of them being converted into goals. After three matchweeks in the ISL, Odisha FC, currently sixth in the table, emerges as the best team in terms of converting their chances into goals. They have scored six goals so far, exceeding their Expected Goals metric of 3.24, indicating that the Juggernauts have scored almost three goals more than expected.
Conversely, the table below shows that Hyderabad FC are the team struggling the most to convert their chances into goals. They were expected to score nearly two goals but have only managed to score one goal in their first two matches.
Clubs ranked by goals to xG
| Teams | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goals Differential |
| Odisha FC | 3 | 6 | 3.24 | 2.76 |
| NorthEast United FC | 3 | 5 | 2.58 | 2.42 |
| Mohun Bagan Super Giant | 3 | 7 | 5.08 | 1.92 |
| Mumbai City FC | 3 | 6 | 4.76 | 1.24 |
| Kerala Blasters FC | 3 | 4 | 2.77 | 1.23 |
| Bengaluru FC | 3 | 3 | 2.16 | 0.84 |
| East Bengal FC | 3 | 3 | 2.83 | 0.17 |
| Punjab FC | 3 | 2 | 2.05 | -0.05 |
| FC Goa | 2 | 4 | 4.18 | -0.18 |
| Jamshedpur FC | 3 | 1 | 1.76 | -0.76 |
| Chennaiyin FC | 3 | 1 | 1.78 | -0.78 |
| Hyderabad FC | 2 | 1 | 1.99 | -0.99 |
Expected Goals Against (xGA)
Similarly, Expected Goals Against (xGA) is the metric that assesses the quality of chances conceded by a team and measures how likely it is for those chances to result in a goal.
In this regard, Jamshedpur FC are the best-performing team so far, having conceded only one goal when they were expected to allow around three goals. Jamshedpur FC is the only team to have kept two clean sheets so far. Their goalkeeper, Rehenesh TP, has recorded the highest number of saves so far, totalling 11, with an average of 24.55 minutes per save.
On the other hand, Chennaiyin FC were expected to concede over 4 goals but has conceded a total of 8 goals so far. Thus, the Marina Machans, currently at the bottom of the ISL table, are also the worst-performing team among ISL clubs in terms of xGA.
Clubs ranked by goals conceded to xGA
| Teams | Matches Played | Goals Conceded | Expected Goals Against (xGA) | Expected Goals against Differential |
| Jamshedpur FC | 3 | 1 | 3.05 | -2.05 |
| NorthEast United FC | 3 | 3 | 3.67 | -0.67 |
| Kerala Blasters FC | 3 | 3 | 2.95 | 0.05 |
| Mohun Bagan Super Giant | 3 | 2 | 1.84 | 0.16 |
| Punjab FC | 3 | 5 | 4.63 | 0.37 |
| Odisha FC | 3 | 5 | 4.25 | 0.75 |
| Mumbai City FC | 3 | 4 | 3.08 | 0.92 |
| East Bengal FC | 3 | 3 | 2.07 | 0.93 |
| FC Goa | 2 | 2 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Hyderabad FC | 2 | 3 | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| Bengaluru FC | 3 | 4 | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Chennaiyin FC | 3 | 8 | 4.12 | 3.88 |
